This season, Ronald Acuña Jr. will not be returning. Austin Riley isn’t either, not during the regular season, anyhow. Marcell Ozuna is just amazing. Matt Olson and those three players would have been the Braves’ top four hitters heading into the season, if you had asked. Acuña is not available. Riley has left. It has been Ozuna’s year to appear. Only one man was left.
The Braves of Atlanta require Matt Olson.
The Braves have struggled mightily to keep their position players healthy and on the field throughout the season, but Olson is one player who hasn’t been affected by injuries in any way. He’s participated in every match this year. Last season, he participated in every game as well. as well as the previous season. Olson has not missed a game since the Braves traded for him prior to the 2022 campaign. With 455 games played in a row, he is actually the best ironman in baseball. His health has never been an issue. Up until this year, neither had demonstrated their abilities.
Olson has a.729 OPS through 547 plate appearances this season, which is exactly 100 wRC+, which is league average. Thus, while he hasn’t really failed, he hasn’t excelled either. Instead, he has been quite mediocre.
However, the actual indicator of how much he’s declined is his line from this year compared to previous year. Olson had a triple slash line of.283/.389/.604 with a 160 wRC+, a.413 wOBA, and a.393 xwOBA in the previous season. It’s not surprise that he finished in the top five in the MVP voting given his incredible stat line. Olson is slashing.226/.309/.420 this season with a 100 wRC+, a.315 wOBA, and a.327 xwOBA. This translates to a 200-point decline in slugging % and an 80-point decline in on-base percentage, which has caused a 60-point decline in wRC+ and a 100-point decline in wOBA. Olson blasted 54 home runs and drove in 139 runs during the previous season, if stats are more your thing. With slightly more than a month of baseball remaining in the season, he already has 22 home runs and 66 RBI.
How the same healthy batter could have both of those stat lines in consecutive seasons is beyond comprehension. Nobody should have expected Olson to duplicate his incredible 2023 campaign, which ranks among the greatest offensive seasons in franchise history and is almost certain to go recognized as his best season to date. Conversely, nobody could have anticipated that the downturn would hit so hard in 2024. Olson’s career wRC+ has ranged from 135 to 140, so I predicted that he will go back to that level this season after hitting an amazing 160 wRC+ in 2023. On no planet could I have imagined Olson producing 100 wRC+ in five months of healthy baseball.
To be fair, Olson’s performance has improved marginally since the All-Star break, but only to a 110 wRC+. Not even close to the tremendous hitter he has been for the majority of his career, nor the top hitter he was the previous year. This season, which comes just after his finest season to date, would be Olson’s poorest complete season if it concluded today. The game of baseball is brutal.
And consider this: Olson’s decline wouldn’t be as noticeable or significant if Acuña, Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, and Sean Murphy had all been healthy and producing MVP-caliber seasons, as well as if Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, and Sean Murphy had played out their regular seasons without injury. With enough talent on offense, they could have survived even one of those occurrences. perhaps even two. Not all, though.
Acuña is not available. Riley has left. Murphy, Albies, and Harris have all missed a lot of time and, in their healthy seasons, have had trouble performing. To make matters worse, each of those three players is seeing their lowest offensive seasons to date. However, none of them earn $22 million a season as Olson does, nor do any of them spend their entire night in the middle of the order. Also, all three of them players contribute naturally to the squad by playing up-the-middle defensive positions. Olson plays first base. Those guys must strike often and hard.
The good news is that the Braves have shown some surprisingly strong play to at least partially offset the negative. Ramon Laureano, Whit Merrifield, and Jorge Soler, three recent arrivals, have all produced—and for Laureano and Merrifield, at a caliber that much surpasses expectations. Harris is back, Marcell Ozuna has been fantastic all year, and Ozzie will be returning shortly. They can also rely on one of the top pitching staffs in baseball, and they have been relying heavily lately. The Braves have a winning record of 10-5 over the last 15 games and 5-2 over the previous 7, but much of that success has come from outstanding pitching. The Braves are still 5-2 after scoring 19 runs in 7 games during the past week, or 2.71 runs per game, on average. You can’t accomplish it without pitching like crazy. Moreover, it is utterly unsustainable. Olson is the first person they need to hit more for.
Though his output has been so dispersed, he does have a home run and two doubles in his previous few games, so perhaps now is the moment he wakes up and realizes he’s Matt Olson. Since June 16th, Olson has only had nine games with two hits, and no three hits throughout that time. Nothing has been constant. Nothing to rely on. We’ve been hoping that this is the moment he wakes up, but it’s been a homer here, a double there. This is the worst OBP he has ever had because even his walk rate is nearly at a career low.
Hitting a baseball is possibly the hardest task in all professional sports since baseball is an extremely difficult sport. Particularly in the present day, when everyone tosses in 98 with nasty breaking stuff, great bullpens, and best practices being used. Nobody claims that it’s simple.
Still, the Braves must more. Better is needed by them. Matt Olson is necessary for them.
They now require him.
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