Despite being a strong preseason favorite to win the National League pennant and possibly even the World Series, the Atlanta Braves have had a disorganized summer. They dominated the first 28 games of the season, winning 19 of them. Since then, they’ve had a 35–36 record, which has caused them to fall far behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East.
The Braves are still in first place for the wild card, but they are now 8-9 as of July 9 due to a current three-game losing streak. Considering the intense and competitive race for the wild card, it is maybe not surprising that the Braves convened a players-only meeting one week prior to Tuesday’s game against the Cincinnati Reds — and just one week before the trade deadline for Major League Baseball officially passed.
What exactly are the Braves doing? This seems like a good moment to check in, we thought. Join us as we look at three explanations for the Braves’ poor play. Scroll gently.
1. An increase in injuries
If anything else about the Braves this season is unknown to you, you most likely already know that they have struggled with a slew of injuries to important players.
With 11 players on the injured list as of right now, the Braves are fourth in the majors. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds, and New York Yankees are the only clubs with more. Astute readers are undoubtedly contemplating “the caliber of players they’re losing matters more than the sheer number of injuries.” You would be right when you say that.
The Braves have been without top outfielder and reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., center fielder Michael Harris II, second baseman Ozzie Albies, and left-hander Max Fried for the majority of the season. (That does not include top prospect Hurston Waldrep or key members of the bullpen like Ray Kerr and Tyler Matzek.) According to data from Baseball Prospectus, the Braves are also second in the majors in predicted Wins Above Replacement loss, only surpassed by the Dodgers.
2. Season-low playoff probabilities are getting closer
To be clear, despite their poor start to July, the Braves are still a huge favorite to win the pennant. But recently, their chances of making the playoffs have suffered, and given the other elements at play with this team, things can seem worse than they actually are.
FanGraphs updates every team’s playoff odds every day. (You can view Atlanta’s by clicking here.) The Braves still have an 85.8% chance of winning October even though they lead the wild-card race by three games going into Tuesday. Even if that again makes them the clear favorites to win, it is also noticeably near to a season-low %.
The Braves have actually only had worse postseason chances this season twice: on June 12 (85.6%) and then on Monday (85.7%). Their chances of falling to a season-low would be all but guaranteed if they lost against the Reds on Tuesday.
3. Persistent pervasive underperformance
On Tuesday night, the Braves will play their 100th game. Thus, it’s noteworthy that a few of their finest players nevertheless have stat lines that are well below average.
First baseman Matt Olson, who placed fourth in the MVP vote just a year ago, has a 92 OPS+, which would be a career low. (Olson has struggled greatly in July; he started the game 7 for 62 with 19 strikeouts and one home run.) Both 2023 All-Stars, Sean Murphy at catcher and Orlando Arcia at shortstop, are significantly below their own lifetime averages. Prior to being placed on the shelf, Albies, Harris, and Acuña, the injured trio, and even reserve outfielder Adam Duvall, were below their usual caliber.
Individuals might have unsatisfactory or bad years for a variety of causes, such as accidents and other catastrophes. However, the Braves are experiencing so many of those at once that it’s concerning and is causing them to falter before the deadline. It seems sense that they are holding a players-only meeting—they, along with everyone else in and around Atlanta, are attempting to determine how to restart the process.
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