After three days of the 2024 MLB Draft, it’s safe to say that nobody anticipated what happened to the Atlanta Braves. Cam Caminiti, the best high school pitcher in the nation, was selected by the Braves with the 24th overall choice; the question now is how much it will cost to sign him to break his promise to LSU. All signs point to him and the Braves’ top ten picks as sure certainties to sign, but we’ve seen last-minute collapses. We may be considering over slot bonuses for more players than only Caminiti, who is predicted to accept one and consume over half of the pot on his own.
In addition to having a small salary cap of just $7,765,000 overall this season, the Braves will need to force top three picks Carter Holton and Luke Sinnard to forgo their remaining college years. In terms of their actual pool allotment, Nick Montgomery and Ethan Bagwell are the final two notable names. The Braves selected both prospects in the fifth and sixth rounds of the draft, and it is anticipated that they will both earn over-slot bonuses. We are very thrilled about Montgomery, a catcher from California with a lot of raw power, and we believe he can succeed in a system that has produced three important catchers in recent years: Shea Langeliers, William Contreras, and Drake Baldwin. Bagwell, an Illinois high school pitcher with tremendous arm talent, will be an important developmental prospect for the Braves organization, which has seen some success with similar players in the past with Spencer Schwellenbach and AJ Smith-Shawver.
As I neglected to mention it before, the deadline for signing is this Thursday, August 1st at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Out of the previous ten rounds, the Braves might also have some challenging picks; nevertheless, this won’t have a significant impact on the draft as a whole because if those picks go unsigned, the pool remains the same. For those who are not aware, each pick in the top 10 rounds is given a bonus that goes toward a team’s total pool. All picks are signed using this total pool amount; however, throughout the last ten rounds, any pick has been able to sign for up to $150,000 without depleting that amount.
Less than $150,000 is not saved; however, more than that will be deducted from the pool’s total. In this sense, pitcher Cayman Goode in the 12th round, outfielder Owen Carey in the 15th round, and outfielder Eric Hartman in the 20th round are the key selections to watch. It’s more likely than not that the Braves will emerge from this draft without signing all three of their picks because they all need to be signed away from D-1 commitments and could be tough signs. Colby Jones, a shortstop selected in the 14th round who is committed to Division I, may also play a role in this situation. Though usually these 11th to 20th round juniors will sign and not expose themselves to being senior signs the next year, they might also run into some issues with the three juniors in the later rounds, who could return to school like Brady Day, a 12th round pick, did last season. Due to their lack of signing leverage—they can’t return to college—senior signings in those final day two picks frequently receive five-figure incentives, making the $150k day three cap an extremely alluring offer.
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